UNEMPLOYMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS: AN ANALYSIS FOR SELECTED METROPOLITAN REGIONS IN BRAZIL

Guilherme Asai, Eliane Aparecida Gracioli Rodrigues, Ricardo Rippel

Resumo


The present study aims to verify if there are relationship between the demographic bonus, unemployment rate and population growth rate. To do this, was estimated the dependency ratio and a log-linear regression model of unemployment rate with population growth rate for selected Brazilian Metropolitan Regions (Belo Horizonte, Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Recife, Salvador and São Paulo). As a result, there is the predominance of the potentially active population against inactive ones, as well as the inversely proportional ratio between the unemployment rate and the population growth rate. Therefore, it can be inferred that the demographic bonus is unharnessed. After, it was structuring a CGE model in order to see what happen with the economy when there are levels of unemployment. As all economic theory says, the unemployment causes increase in prices and decrease in welfare.


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ISSN 2447-4622