Fertility rates in Rio Grande do Sul between 1946 and 1960: an analysis using the own-child methodology

Abstract

Using the own-children methodology and data from the 1960 Brazilian census, the objective of this work is to examine the onset of fertility decline in Brazil through estimative of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) between 1946 and 1960. This study employs micro-regions from Rio Grande do Sul as unit of analysis, which allows considering demographic and socioeconomic differentials within the state. Rio Grande do Sul was chosen because it was a pioneer in terms of fertility decline in Brazil. Results show that although fertility varies substantially by micro-regions, there was a high-fertility concentration in the north and low-fertility setting in the south (particularly in two micro-regions close to Uruguay) as well as in the micro-regions of Porto Alegre and Santa Cruz do Sul. Results show that fertility was already low in the Porto Alegre micro-region between 1946 and 1960, dropping from 3.6 to 3.2 between 1946-1950 and 1956-1960. It is remarkable that rates were lower than those from Rio de Janeiro city in 1964 (CELADE/CSFC, 1972). Some explanations suggested for such early onset of fertility decline are based on the higher proportion of single and high-educated women, who participated in the labor market, and the low child mortality already observed in 1960 in Porto Alegre. However, our results also reveal that the Porto Alegre micro-region was unable to diffuse its reproductive behavior to Rio Grande Sul and hence, its fertility decline, at least before 1955.